Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for October 11, 2021.

Hello, everyone and welcome back. My name is greg furman, and this is the vantage point, ai market outlook for the week of october, the 11th 2021 now to get started this week were going to begin where we always do with that very important us dollar index. First of all, we will look at the indicators were using this week 37 week, look back were using bars and our candles predicted short medium and long term difference with the neural index point in time, the triple ema cross and, of course, the very, very popular verified Support and

Resistance zones now coming off the non-farm payroll number. The dollar remains locked in a very, very long-term channel here now again when we, when we hear these headlines about how bad that? U s, unemployment report was its just simply not factual. The u6 number is moving in the right direction. The unemployment rate is moving in the right direction. The household survey number the u3 number

Was less than expected, but that number is likely going to be revised upwards next month, so it does leave the dollar somewhat, holding this strength and that’s coming out. In the vantage point, software now, when we look closer at this, the the main strategy, because again this is an outlook, not a recap of something that already happened. When we look at this, we can see that our support zone is the t-cross long that determines, in the vantage point, software whether were long or short, whether its bullish or whether its bearish. We also use the

Point in time for the weekly opening price and the yearly opening price, the yearly opening price, the dollar is firmly above its yearly opening price, but it cant seem to break this channel, so we always want to make sure were going back, so we can see the Bigger picture here now that bigger picture has resistance between 94 30 and 94 94 70, which ive discussed for approximately the last

three weeks this these levels can to date have still not been broken now an easy upside target would be 97 80 if we can clear this but again you can see this dark red ominous cloud moving lower down blocking this the the index from moving up now that’s not to say that it wont because again i will make that argument that the some of the pundits are misinterpreting that particular labor report the average hourly earnings are decent again that u6 is very strong and.

the unemployment rate dropping so again what its going to take to break this channel is a catalyst now we could get that catalyst coming this week with the fed minutes its possible but again in order for the dollar to extend and break out of this channel we must break free and clear of the 9480 area and right now that appears to be a tall.

order so we would look closer at the vantage point software to see where the dollar actually is now as the dollar has been moving kind of sideways up near the top of the the yearly high range our predicted differences are still moving downward the slope of the predicted differences are warning that its there’s not a lot of strength here so the neural index has picked up on.

that but again this is friday after the non-farm payroll number the the dollar is still holding close to its weekly opening price its closing almost exactly where it started now what we can do is again look at these advanced strategies so we we have some idea whats going on here if we click on our short term crossover in vantage point were struggling up here to get a clear signal of this when we click on our f 8 we or our f7 excuse me our medium term crossover is still not crossed to the downside but again when were.

looking at these predicted differences its measuring the long-term trend against the medium-term trend and that is still saying okay there’s not a lot of momentum here so we could get this momentum after the non-farm payroll number but when we look at our f8 our predicted moving average by ourself we can assess here that on tuesday we moved back up above the predicted moving average and you can see how this is being used as a pivot level now again were closing rate on that long predicted so the dollar really.

does need to make a move here soon or it has that risk of a substantial sell-off but there is also a substantial risk of a breakout to the upside once the market actually digests or real money digest that labor report and they could look at this and say okay the fed is getting ready for takeoff here early theyre going to end the bond tapering program next month and we could be looking at a much earlier rate hike maybe even february or march so the minutes will be.

key this coming week now that’s put pressure on the equity markets this past week but as we can see as i spoke and spoke to in last weeks weekly outlook that buying on dips has been a very profitable thing with with the with the global indexes mainly the us indexes so the s p 500 on thursday has moved back up above the t-cross long so 43 83 our t-cross long is now a very very strong level you can see that this move actually started back here as the predicted differences start.

crossed and started moving higher the neural index started to turn green way back over here then the market made its move these are the kind of moves we want to look for going forward so looking at next week im monitoring the nasdaq very very closely like again some of the pundits saying oh the nasdaq not the place to be the nasdaq its the stocks are going lower because of the fed well in actual fact when we.

look closer at the nasdaq here weve got a low coming in at 14178 we hit that that’s going back by the way using the verified support resistance zones that’s going back to july the 19th of so when we look at it right now the nasdaq has come down to almost that exact same level and then our predicted differences here started rising the short term predicted difference really shot out way back here so as the market was moving lower we had the divergence on that short term predicted difference.

but then the medium and long term they started to roll over long also then our neural index came on board and you can see that there’s very very little lag in a setup like this now the problem is what i just mentioned determining the primary trend are we above or below the t cross long now the s p 500 and the nasdaq are about 90 percent correlated the s p has already moved above the t.

cross long so the only thing stopping the nasdaq from recovering further is that t cross long at fourteen thousand seven eleven so we wanna watch this level very closely when we start backing up a little bit here when we look at this we can see that our short-term crossover and vantage point that has taken place days ago and and right off that verified support zone i could argue that one could take the the chance and buy off of that because we.

can see that our short-term indicators when we when we utilize a number of the predicted indicators in vantage point we do more of a complete analysis and we can see these moves before they actually happen so that short term crossover is actually quite effective but once again when we look at that verified support zone one could buy off of that level alone and then look or just simply wait until the the neural index turns green that led to a fairly substantial move to the upside but once again weve.

got to clear that t cross long that is stopping it but right now weve closed above the long predicted that level was coming in at fourteen thousand five forty weve closed right on the t cross long at fourteen thousand five seventy three now a bit of a concern that i have here is that that a number of these pundits have misinterpreted that labor report and theyre focusing on the u3 number if you look at the u3 number yes its a its a big miss.

but the u3 number is a moving target here guys theyre gonna last months was revised and when we go into the non-farm payroll next month in november its the u3 is likely to be revised up again the u6 is not revised it is a it is a its a solid number and its moving in the right direction that’s why the unemployment rate drops so much because the u6 number did the broader.

unemployment so this could benefit uh it could benefit the dollar that’s the problem if the dollar breaks through that particular uh channel that i showed you between 94 70 and the yearly opening price down in that mid 89 level then that would likely have a very negative effect here but again when we look at the nasdaq from a predicted standpoint we have a fresh crossover that is just taking place but its rate on or just under that t cross long so in order for this.

to progress we must clear above that but potentially some very good up buying opportunity on the nasdaq depending what that dollar index does now if that channel on the dollar index can break then that would mean that gold would be getting ready for a bigger move to the downside but again im not convinced there’s there’s for every one positive in buying us dollars there’s two negatives that’s the problem here youve got the debt ceiling youve got youve got the printing presses running at full steam ahead that’s not.

going to deter us necessarily because other countries are doing the same but we still need to be mindful of that so right now uh gold responded in my respectful opinion only properly to that unemployment report it it actually took a big spike up and then but it closed the day in negative territory now gold has a number the golds arch nemesis is in my my opinion only is no longer just the dollar it is bitcoin and well go to that one in a minute but right now with.

gold we are closing the week here you can see weve closed at 17 17 56 and again that t-cross long 1761 that’s the needle in the haystack potentially that were looking at looking for excuse me that the dollar there is still life in the dollar here and that is not a great thing for gold now our predicted differences are holding above the zero line our neural index is green so again we need to see how the market is going to digest that payroll a very very important payroll number.

now again when we look at bitcoin ethereum some of these digital currencies uh once again weve again taken out another resistance high at uh when we look at bitcoin once again the number one investment in in 2021 again a close second i would argue over the on an annualized basis over the last 10 years is the nasdaq is number two with 20 annualized returns over the last 10 years but bitcoin annualized returns over again the last 10 11 years 230 240.

per year guys so if somebodys telling you that bitcoins a scam or its this or that that’s that the charts are not in support of that statement so again when we look at this were getting a a pretty broad spread away from that t cross long at forty nine thousand four fifty six so we want to be careful because again we have that.

medium term crossing the long term predicted difference now when were looking at at a complete analysis using some of the predictive indicators in vantage point the the pink line represents the medium-term crossover and the strength of it the dark blue line represents the long-term crossover and the strength of that so the theory here is the medium term crosses over the long term to the downside that’s saying that this trend up here is weakening a little.

bit it doesnt mean its a trend reversal but it points towards a corrective move coming to likely down to one of two areas which would be 49456 or if we click on our f8 we can get much much closer to price using that lone predicted moving average by itself removing the black line that blue line is coming in at 50 throughout 53 243 which you can see is right there when we put it on our bar it.

gives vantage point gives us an exact number of that predicted moving average this blue line has the correlation to approximately 31 other markets when it does its forecast of this blue line the slope is still strongly up but again we would need to hold above 53 243 and i cant rule out some dollar strength because again i believe the pundits on friday are misinterpreting a large part of that rather decent uh unemployment number now when we look at some of uh the other additional markets because again this this outlook is primarily focused on.

futures and currencies and and we bring stocks into that using the stock indexes uh remember there’s safety in the stock index futures where the individual stocks can be very very volatile now when we look at energy again a large part of this move in in energy is coming from china uh buying up energy buying up coal buying up natural gas buying up uh oil buying up everything and that’s and of course weve got supply shortages so.

this is all likely inevitably transitory i i hate to say it but i almost have to agree with the fed on this one that this is we would be very very cautious continuing to buy this we would watch these vantage point indicators very very closely but for now theyre still strong its still saying weve got a little bit more upside here when we back out our.

charts again before you ever take a long short term position you always want to look at the long term picture so when we look at that long-term picture in at least from last year oil really didnt do that well at this time of year when we go back again bringing in seasonalities into this oil the previous year didnt do too bad at all so again there is a lot of distortion in in prices around some of these commodities like oil because of the supply shortages china buying up everything so well continue to monitor.

but right now were basically i think that oil will likely cool off a little bit next going into next week now in the in the ai weekly outlook we also want to bring some currencies into our analysis here and say okay well if that dollar is getting ready potentially to break out to the upside if it can break that long-term channel above 94 70 and start to proceed higher what currencies would be hit the hardest by that well in my respectful opinion it would.

be likely the euro and the british pound these are two currencies that would get hit by that potentially so if we look at the euro currency right now were getting support building down here but once again if we look at it over the last nine month period on the euro or if we look at the longer term play here.

even going back looking at that with the with again doing a comparative analysis to the dollar index because once again what we need to understand here is that there’s an inverse a hundred percent inverse correlation between the dollar index and the euro us currency pair you are absolutely trading the dollar index so when we look at this we were weve got weve had some pretty heavy support here at 116 03 so this will remain our focal point.

whether we can hold above or below the 116 level i would strongly advise that everybody watch that level very very closely now our predicted differences are starting to rise our neural index is positive but we are far far below the t cross long at 1 16 50 in my respectful opinion only stay if were staying with the primary trend then if there’s a corrective move on the dollar corrective move on this pair then.

we would target the high between 117 55 and 1 1650 is where we would look for potential short entry points if we bring in the predicted moving average by itself without the black line to to again remove some of the confusion of the crossover and everything else and just look at this from an actual pivot standpoint weve all heard people on tv talking about the 50-day moving average 100-day moving average 200-day moving average this is conceptually its the same thing except were using a predicted moving average that is removed.

a considerable amount of lag out of those longer-term moving averages so in this particular case we have an actual pivot area the long predicted 115 87 weve closed at 115 70 the first crack in the armor here so to speak with the dollar is we would have to break above this blue line in order to take some of the pressure off the downside that at this particular time seems.

unlikely because if gold breaks down the euro is going to follow the gold down that is the likely outcome here or that is likely but the one thing i will mention here is that again youve got that dollar cycle at the beginning of the month where the dollar is strong in the first week of the new month probably nine out of the 12 months per year and then mysteriously sells off several days after the non-farm payroll number whether it was good or bad so really with the dollar.

were trying to determine at this time whether were going to get a new trend or this is just part of the dollar the monthly dollar cycle of institutional buying to settle trade balances to pay government employees run it run local governments all those things they need dollars right so with the euro we will be watching this level of 115 87 very closely if we break through that.

we go to the t cross long at 1 16 50 where we can reassess if we want to add shorts at that particular time now the pound dollar again you can see the power of the of the t cross long which determines whether something is bullish or bearish now the pound is held above its weekly opening price this point in time has been modified to the weekly price so the pound you can see made a big move up but it was blocked by the t-cross long came back down went back up to the t-cross long on tuesday.

did it again on wednesday did it again on thursday did it again on friday its very difficult not to make money when you’re using these levels as pivots or potentially entry points in this case here now two for for monday we have the vantage point predicted high coming in at 136 51 we have the yearly opening price at approximately the same level so for next week guys this is the level you want to watch if we stay below 136 136 51 the pounds going to take a deeper.

dive probably back into the lows down around 134 12 but if we can hold above the t-cross long and more specifically above for a couple of days in a row at least two days in a row then that should be it and the pound will likely start to move higher but once again my optimism on that remains very guarded i will be watching that channel high of 94 30 94 70 on the dollar index very very closely if im.

going to get short on this particular pair now one of the lead indicators for the dollar index is the u s japan pair it is fully recovered after a retracement back down here towards the vantage point t-cross long were on the move again and were back up at the high or just above the high 112 112 08 was the previous high but the high from friday again remember how theyre telling us what a horrible labor report that was well if that was true then this wouldnt be up here would it so again somebody is.

buying this thing were up here so the dollar yen is either going to take off here or its its going to sink or swim i think would be a better terminology but this certainly does have an underlying bullish tone to it so again were looking to see if we can break through some of these levels now i have to go back a fair ways here to find some verified zones but.

there’s a lot of them sitting around this area so the one ive got my eye on right now are these ones up here can we can we clear and get above and clear this 112 40 area if we can clear one 1240 then our next viable target would be up at 113 83 so for this coming week you want to watch the 1 12 40 area like a hawk to see if.

we can break and close above it our vp indicators are saying yes to that actually weve had a corrective move the the m8 diff cross the medium term crossing the long-term predicted difference was spot-on telling us do not buy up here on either one of these bars neither one of them then we come back down but we start to get into a pivot level near that t-cross long and as you can see the predicted differences are now the slope of them are starting to turn back up which.

ultimately led to a to a fairly significant rally from that 111 area one 1080 area but weve got to keep this thing going so once again if we click on our f8 here you can see that once we closed above that predicted moving average two days in a row and this was all the way back on tuesday and wednesday then on thursday and friday it it was liftoff so again 112 40 that’s the area you want to watch and we also want to make sure that our neural index is holding green and our.

predicted differences stay above this very important zero line now with the canadian dollar for next week the canadian dollar had a pretty solid labor report but i still say the u s labor report numbers were better uh you know the the canadian unemployment rate i think is still hovering up around 6 9 percent uh that fails in comparison to the numbers out of the us.

so but we but again we have some strong verified support down here 124 22 is going to come into play this week now the the vantage point predicted differences this move started over here and again this is an outlook not a recap of something something that already happened i i dont like to do that so yes the medium term crossed over back here and you can see that weve come back up.

and down weve come so again in this particular case when we look at this or lets say for example we bring in our predicted high and predicted low then there’s meat on the bone for for both here in my opinion whether you’re a buyer or a seller you can utilize this but in most cases you can see that after we have a big move like this one there very.

often isnt a lot of follow-through we didnt hit the predicted high for the for the last couple of days uh were hitting the predicted lows so ultimately there was money lining up to to get it short on this particular pair the canadian dollar has the they have commodities in their favor they they have equities in their favor they’ve got a lot the canadian dollar has a lot of things that will help it that are not based around conventional uh technical indicators waves their waves gan theories fibonacci they dont.

or theyre not always relevant when youve got strong inner market correlations to oil to the s p 500 so again if if oil and the s p 500 or the nasdaq or both can they advance then the canadian dollar will will make further gains against its u s counterpart so again we will watch this 120 124 22 but just remember order flow traders love to buy dips down here or just outside of a channel and lets be clear there’s a pretty strong channel.

pretty strong channel going on this thing so again when you look at this and you back it out over nine months you can see that weve come right back up to where we were were kind of hovering here but this looks like its getting ready to to potentially make a bigger drop maybe even back towards by year end uh i wouldnt rule out i definitely would not rule out the 120 area by by year end so that’s about 500 pips almost from where we are now that’s some that’s a pretty decent trade if we can continue.

to to hold these key vantage point levels now aussie and new zealand aussie us and new zealand us for next week they are going to be at the mercy here guys of the s p 500 if the s p and the nasdaq would have which i showed you that fresh buy signal on the nasdaq off that verified support low if the stocks can recover or just hold.

their ground then the aussie could recover here now again we weve got very stiff resistance here at the high of 73 16 we need to break free and clear of that in my respectful opinion if i really look closer at this over a one year period i can see that im basically what this appears to be is just pause it were just simply paused in the overall downtrend on this pair so again were gonna watch these vp levels very very closely if we can hold above the t cross long and again this is this is a.

great step-by-step way of using vantage point is that we look at the t-cross long and say okay are we above it or below it were above it so as long as were above 72 78 then we would be long on this pair but if if you dont agree with what i just said then the alternate strategy is to put a sell limit order just below 70 78 because again this is this is an outlook guys not a recap of something that’s already happened here were giving specific levels were using these vantage point pivot areas to set up.

trades so if you you if you’re a buyer you believe its going higher then you can put your buy limit order at 72 78 if you disagree and you’re you’re a short trader on this which i wouldnt necessarily be disagree with you uh then you would put your sell limit order below 72 78 right so your your your your long traders are going to be buying off the predicted low at 72 78 that’s a perfect match right your short traders theyre going to sell at the high of 70 at the predicted high.

of 73 37 then you have the option of closing your trade out at the vantage point t cross long or the vantage point predicted low right or you can just simply say im not sure which way this is going its a little bit of a mixed bag so im going to put a buy limit order above 7337 and im going to put a sell stop limit order below 72 87 and one way or the other one of those two orders i can tell you to a degree of about 80 percent that one of them is going to be.

triggered and from there we should be able to see what the next move on this pair is going to be the same thing would apply to new zealand us but its its its a little clearer picture here isnt it because it cant get past the vantage point t cross long so the difference between these two currency pairs oz u s and new zealand u s its showing me that new zealand u.

s is the weaker of the two if new zealand drops ultimately its likely to drag the aussie down with it so the t-cross long 6964 but both of these pairs are determined on whether will be determined whether stocks can regain their composure and start making gains i would strongly advise that everybody look at seasonal seasonal patterns in stocks uh you know it its its amazing how many pundits are dumbfounded that the s p and the nasdaq have recovered when there’s a known.

seasonality that stocks dont do well in september but the also the other seasonality is stocks do do very well in in october november and december so if that’s the case we could see a recovery on some of these equity-based currencies like the aussie the new zealand and even the cad would fall into that particular category so with that said this is the vantage point ai market outlook for the week of october the 11th.